What I read
35 weekly rows for 5 ads over W1 to W7, plus each ad set's creative count and current Delivery status. A result is a purchase. Baseline is W1 and W2 pooled, as you set. You said there were no budget, audience or offer changes in these weeks, so I did not look for those causes.
Limits first: this is 7 weeks per ad and one row per ad per week, so the trends below rest on 7 points each and are a reading of your data, not proof. Meta marks frequency as estimated ("This metric is estimated").
Per ad weekly table
Frequency = impressions / reach. Cost per purchase = spend / purchases. Computed by script, rounded to 2 decimals.
| ad | week | impressions | reach | frequency | purchases | spend $ | cost per purchase $ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 Linen sheet video | W1 | 9200 | 6100 | 1.51 | 92 | 460 | 5.00 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W2 | 10100 | 5200 | 1.94 | 88 | 470 | 5.34 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W3 | 10400 | 4300 | 2.42 | 71 | 480 | 6.76 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W4 | 10800 | 3600 | 3.00 | 52 | 475 | 9.13 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W5 | 11000 | 3100 | 3.55 | 41 | 470 | 11.46 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W6 | 11200 | 2700 | 4.15 | 30 | 465 | 15.50 |
| A1 Linen sheet video | W7 | 11100 | 2400 | 4.62 | 24 | 470 | 19.58 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W1 | 7000 | 5600 | 1.25 | 40 | 350 | 8.75 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W2 | 7300 | 5500 | 1.33 | 42 | 355 | 8.45 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W3 | 7100 | 5400 | 1.31 | 39 | 350 | 8.97 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W4 | 7400 | 5300 | 1.40 | 41 | 360 | 8.78 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W5 | 7200 | 5200 | 1.38 | 40 | 355 | 8.88 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W6 | 7300 | 5100 | 1.43 | 38 | 355 | 9.34 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | W7 | 7100 | 5000 | 1.42 | 39 | 350 | 8.97 |
| A3 Founder story image | W1 | 5000 | 4100 | 1.22 | 21 | 250 | 11.90 |
| A3 Founder story image | W2 | 5600 | 3500 | 1.60 | 20 | 255 | 12.75 |
| A3 Founder story image | W3 | 6200 | 2900 | 2.14 | 16 | 260 | 16.25 |
| A3 Founder story image | W4 | 6400 | 2500 | 2.56 | 12 | 255 | 21.25 |
| A3 Founder story image | W5 | 6500 | 2200 | 2.95 | 10 | 250 | 25.00 |
| A3 Founder story image | W6 | 6600 | 1900 | 3.47 | 8 | 255 | 31.88 |
| A3 Founder story image | W7 | 6700 | 1700 | 3.94 | 7 | 250 | 35.71 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W1 | 8000 | 6200 | 1.29 | 64 | 400 | 6.25 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W2 | 8200 | 6000 | 1.37 | 66 | 405 | 6.14 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W3 | 8100 | 5800 | 1.40 | 60 | 400 | 6.67 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W4 | 8300 | 5600 | 1.48 | 58 | 405 | 6.98 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W5 | 8400 | 5500 | 1.53 | 55 | 410 | 7.45 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W6 | 8300 | 5300 | 1.57 | 50 | 405 | 8.10 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | W7 | 8200 | 5100 | 1.61 | 47 | 400 | 8.51 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W1 | 4000 | 3500 | 1.14 | 10 | 200 | 20.00 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W2 | 4200 | 3300 | 1.27 | 14 | 205 | 14.64 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W3 | 4100 | 3100 | 1.32 | 13 | 200 | 15.38 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W4 | 4300 | 3000 | 1.43 | 15 | 210 | 14.00 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W5 | 4200 | 2800 | 1.50 | 16 | 205 | 12.81 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W6 | 4100 | 2700 | 1.52 | 15 | 200 | 13.33 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | W7 | 4300 | 2600 | 1.65 | 16 | 205 | 12.81 |
Diagnosis
Ratio = W7 cost per purchase / baseline cost per purchase (W1 and W2 spend / W1 and W2 purchases). The bands are my own reading of Meta's status rule, applied to each ad against its own first weeks: Meta's Creative limited status means cost per result is "more than ads you ran in the past but less than twice as much", and Creative fatigue means "more than or equal to twice as much as ads you ran in the past". Meta compares with past ads, not with the same ad, so my bands are not Meta's status. My cut points: ratio under 1.2 is Steady (the 0.2 allowance for week to week noise is my own default; tell me if you want another), 1.2 to under 2.0 Rising, 2.0 or more Doubled. Frequency rose means W7 frequency is higher than W1.
| ad | ad set | creatives | Delivery status now | baseline $ | W7 $ | ratio | band | freq W1 | freq W7 | frequency | diagnosis | purchases W1 | purchases W7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 Linen sheet video | Sleep Prospecting | 1 | Creative fatigue | 5.17 | 19.58 | 3.79 | Doubled | 1.51 | 4.62 | rose | Fatigue suspect | 92 | 24 |
| A2 Duvet carousel | Sleep Prospecting 2 | 1 | Active | 8.60 | 8.97 | 1.04 | Steady | 1.25 | 1.42 | rose | Steady | 40 | 39 |
| A3 Founder story image | Brand Story | 1 | Creative limited | 12.32 | 35.71 | 2.90 | Doubled | 1.22 | 3.94 | rose | Fatigue suspect | 21 | 7 |
| A4 Pillow UGC video | UGC Test | 3 | Active (ad set has 3 creatives, so the status cannot show fatigue) | 6.19 | 8.51 | 1.37 | Rising | 1.29 | 1.61 | rose | Fatigue suspect | 64 | 47 |
| A5 Bundle offer image | Retargeting Bundle | 1 | Active | 16.88 | 12.81 | 0.76 | Steady | 1.14 | 1.65 | rose | Steady | 10 | 16 |
Reading per ad: - A1 Linen sheet video: band Doubled with frequency up (table row). This matches Meta's cue: "If performance begins to drop as your frequency numbers rise", the audience may be experiencing ad fatigue. Its Delivery status now: Creative fatigue. - A2 Duvet carousel: band Steady, diagnosis Steady. Delivery status now: Active. - A3 Founder story image: band Doubled with frequency up (table row). This matches Meta's cue: "If performance begins to drop as your frequency numbers rise", the audience may be experiencing ad fatigue. Its Delivery status now: Creative limited. - A4 Pillow UGC video: band Rising with frequency up (table row). This matches Meta's cue: "If performance begins to drop as your frequency numbers rise", the audience may be experiencing ad fatigue. Its Delivery status now: Active (ad set has 3 creatives, so the status cannot show fatigue). - A5 Bundle offer image: band Steady, diagnosis Steady. Delivery status now: Active.
I give no frequency number at which fatigue starts: Meta's pages I used give none. Meta also says it counts "all recent exposures of the ad's image or video, including those from other campaigns from your Page", so if any of these images or videos run elsewhere, the rows here undercount exposure.
Counts
Counted by script from the Diagnosis table.
| band | ads | which |
|---|---|---|
| Steady | 2 | A2, A5 |
| Rising | 1 | A4 |
| Doubled | 2 | A1, A3 |
| diagnosis | ads | which |
|---|---|---|
| Fatigue suspect | 3 | A1, A3, A4 |
| Ask | 0 | none |
| Steady | 2 | A2, A5 |
Proposed tests (HELD)
These come from the options Meta lists: a new image or video that is "materially different from the original creative", keeping the original active, or a larger audience. Nothing is paused, edited or launched.
| test | for ad | change | status |
|---|---|---|---|
| X1 | A1 Linen sheet video | Add one new ad with a materially different image or video in the same ad set; keep the original running. Creative content: [ADD: your new concept] | HELD |
| X2 | A3 Founder story image | Add one new ad with a materially different image or video in the same ad set; keep the original running. Creative content: [ADD: your new concept] | HELD |
| X3 | A4 Pillow UGC video | Add one new ad with a materially different image or video in the same ad set; keep the original running. Creative content: [ADD: your new concept] | HELD |
| X4 | A1, A3, A4 | Alternative: widen the ad set audience instead of adding creative. Audience change: [ADD: which audience] | HELD |
These are tests, not fixes: I am not predicting the cost per purchase that follows.
Questions for you
- Do the images or videos in A1 and A3 run in any other campaign from your Page? Meta counts those exposures too.
- A4 sits in an ad set with 3 creatives, so Meta's status cannot flag it. Can you send the other two ads' weekly rows so I can read the whole ad set?
- Which new concepts do you have ready for the tests? I left [ADD] placeholders rather than invent creative.
Needs your decision
- Approve, change or drop each HELD test before anything changes in Ads Manager.